San Diego County’s Housing Forecast — BUY Sooner than Later

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San Diego County’s net growth in population from birth (approximately 24,000 in 2014) and in-migration (approximately 12,000 in 2014) will out-pace the supply of new multi-family and single-family homes over the next few years. According to the SANDAG Series 13 forecast, 3,574 single-family and 7,138 multi-family units need to be added each year, between 2012 and 2020, to meet the demand caused by this population growth. However, housing permit data reveals single-family permits average only 2,272 per year, and multi-family permits average only 3,153 units per year, despite the economic recovery. This new supply accounts for only 64% and 44% of the annual need, respectively, indicating the County’s already substantial housing shortage is worsening. As demand continues to increase and supply continues to tighten, increased prices and affordability problems are the inevitable result. Rising interest rates will only exacerbate the affordability problem — so the best time to buy a home anywhere in San Diego County is probably sooner than later.